Jim Rogers - Barron's interview

Link here

Q: I've read that you think the penchant of the last two presidential administrations for bailing out failing U.S. companies is a big mistake and will contribute to prolonging this recession. You argue that it's best to let these companies all go bankrupt. How bad can the economy get?

A: Yes, politicians are making mistakes. In Japan, the problem has lasted for 19 years. I hope that it doesn't last 19 years in the U.S. The approach that works is to let them (U.S. banks and automakers) collapse and clean out the system. The idea that phony accounting is the solution (through changes in mark-to-market rules) is ludicrous. And the idea that a debt problem and an excessive spending problem can be cured with more debt and more spending is ludicrous.

It's laughable on its face, but politicians think they've got to do something. Unfortunately, they are doing the wrong things and they are going to make it worse.

Debt prayer

Interesting article in today's FT about Britons turning to religion for advice about debt.
So far commentary has been about availability of debt from the banks, forcing the banks to lend and more recently an indication that there is a shifting mood to pay down debt.
This story marks an interesting start to a change in attitude to debt - that this change is a deep rooted shift in society.
If one could turn on the cheap debt taps again (and the government is certainly trying with the state owned banks) then attitude to debt becomes crucial. The scale cultural shift will come as a shock to many.

Consumer says no. US credit card debt plunges.

Consumer credit dropped much faster than expected in February. Americans took on far less credit card debt.

Credit card debt fell at an annual rate of $7.8 billion (9.7%).

This is the sharpest drop in dollar terms ever, he steepest percentage fall since 1978.

Overall Consumer debt decreased at an annual rate of 3.5%

Government wants to increase credit - consumers saying no to debt.

Household savings ratio up from 1.7% to 4.8% in one quarter.

From today's Quarterly national accounts for the UK.

The household saving ratio was 4.8 per cent in 2008 quarter four, compared with 1.7 per cent in the previous quarter. For the year 2008 the household saving ratio was 2.0 per cent.

Debt reviled.

US dash to savings

In the US bank savings deposits rose by $246bn to $4,343bn (a record) in the nine weeks to March 9, according to data from the Fed.
$246bn in 9 weeks is more than the whole of 2008, when savings deposits rose by $229bn.
We must get the banks lending again sounds rather hollow - certainly from a retail savings perspective.
What is happening today is not simply a "crunch" which can be unblocked with government policy. We are witnessing a generational change in attitudes to money and to debt. Children will remember the worry and stresses they see their parents going through and will not be as enthusiastic to put it on the plastic.
A new frugality is coming.

Three times salary

Deep breath... step back... analyse.

Three times a single salary is a sensible amount to borrow on a house. Interest rates change with time, governments change, jobs change. A lot of things change in the 25 years that it takes to pay off a mortgage. A conservative 3 times salary has been shown to be a solid base for sensible mortgage lending - though in the 80s the interest rates may have put borrowers on a 3x multiple under strain.

So - what does the former president of National Association of Estate Agents say to a proposed cap on lending multiples?

Any move to further restrict mortgage lending would add insult to injury," said Trevor Kent, a former president of the National Association of Estate Agents.It would be suicidal and cause property prices to come down yet further. Lenders are already reluctant to lend, and this would give them an excuse to put up another hurdle, stopping buyers getting access to finance."
Self serving nonsense.
Suicidal describes 125% mortgages and 6x multiples. Repossession and months of worry for over leveraged householders is painful.

Estate agents should spare us the bleating.